Coming into this season, there were a bunch of things that I felt to be almost guaranteed. Those included Calvin Ridley finishing as a top-10 wide receiver, Lamar Jackson pushing the boundaries of rushing yards at the quarterback position, and Derrick Henry being an injury-proof workhorse that was guaranteed a huge workload. While all three of these things looked sure to happen in the early portion of the season, the second half of the season proved that things can change very VERY quickly.
2021 also provided some pleasant surprises. It provided us with not one, not two, not three, but FOUR rookies that finished within the top 36 wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
So what can we take away from these happenings in the NFL? Here are a few of my general takeaways from 2021:
Trust the Rookie Wide Receivers
For quite a few years in a row, from essentially 2012-2019 (except for 2014… thank you Odell), there was a stain on rookie wide receivers in fantasy football. Names like John Ross, N’Keal Harry, and Corey Coleman come to mind when thinking about guys who massively underproduced. It became that you would be coined as that crazy guy at the fantasy draft who reached way too far if you decided to take a rookie wideout before round 10.
But that tide has seemingly changed. 2020 provided us with a class loaded full of talents such as Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins to name a few. And 2021 has only continued the trend of massive talent. As mentioned before, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, and Amon-Ra St. Brown were all studs for their respective offenses.
I think the phrase “one is a coincidence, two is a pattern” is very relevant here. Sure, every now and again a special draft class happens to come to fruition, but seeing back-to-back years of massive talent has solidified rookie wide receivers as being viable options in fantasy drafts.
Fade the Early-Round QB
I can’t believe I’m the one writing this! I was a huge proponent of taking a quarterback early this season. I loved the value on guys like Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson falling into the fourth, fifth, and sometimes even sixth rounds. But sheesh did that burn me. Murray finished as the QB11, Jackson finished as the QB15, and Russell Wilson, another fairly early-round QB finished as the QB17.
In short, the price you paid for a big-name QB did not pay off in the long run. Sure Kyler and Lamar gave you some games that won your matchups for you, but that only accounted for 25% or less of the season. There was a MUCH higher hit rate on quarterbacks with ADPs over 100. Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, and Carson Wentz were all either QB1s or borderline QB1s that you could have waited a very long time to select in your draft.
I suppose, in short, what I am trying to say is that QB is a surprisingly more volatile position than most fantasy players realize. The guys that you expect to be a slam dunk do not always pan out as such. And sometimes those guys that get written off during the preseason pan out to be some of the best options.
Zero-RB is… Back?
The zero-RB strategy has always been one that just makes my skin crawl. My stomach gets upset just at the thought of not having a top 12 running back on my roster by the end of the season. I immediately think “How can you win a championship without a bell-cow back?” But this season proved to me that my assumption was wrong. Zero-RB is a viable strategy to utilize in fantasy football.
I think that primarily, this is more of an analysis of the wide receiver position than it is of the running back position. With more and more leagues transitioning to PPR, the wide receiver position has become such an important position to hit on and have depth at. I’m going to toot my own horn here a little bit… But in my league of record that I won the championship in this season, my wide receiver depth was the key to success. I managed to roster Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, and DeAndre Hopkins. Week in and week out, I could rely on some combination of the 4 of them tallying 60 plus points and giving me a solid point base. Then add in roughly 20 from my QB and I only needed 10 or so from my running backs to put me in a great position to win.
I am not saying that I am all in on the Zero-RB strategy, but I may try to employ it and test it out in some of my lower stake leagues. I can only dream of a roster of Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Ja’Marr Chase next season. Add in some late-round RBs like Kareem Hunt or Devin Singletary and I love that roster composition!
