Well, this is certainly a new beginning for First Seed Sports. We began as a football blog, then evolved into the world of basketball. I think it’s only right that we continue to expand into another sport: baseball. I know that both Kyle and myself have a huge passion for baseball, and moving forward, maybe Mike will join in with the baseball writing. To understand my personal perspective on baseball writing, I would like to give you a little background on my baseball fanship.
I have been a diehard New York Yankees fan since the day I was born. My bedroom growing up had pinstriped walls, posters of Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, and a Yankees bedspread. I can remember nearly every summer growing up there was one day that always stood out as my favorite – the day my dad would take me into the Bronx to watch a game. That fandom has stuck with me all along, and I still watch nearly every Yankees game each summer. As for my interest in fantasy baseball, I participate in a 16 team redraft points league that is quite competitive. As the commissioner of this league, I have modified the points scoring system in a way that I feel is much more fun and exciting as compared to the standard points format in fantasy baseball. But I will write another article at some point explaining my methodologies for that league.
Now that you have some perspective of where I am coming from, I would like to move forward with the article. So, with further adieu, here is my very first fantasy baseball article!
5 Players that I will not be leaving drafts without in 2021
After a weird, wild, and wacky 3 month baseball season, the dust has settled and the expanded MLB playoffs are underway. Many teams had to deal with doubleheaders, starters missing games due to unforeseen reasons, and injuries out the wazoo. All of which led to an exciting rotation of players being used in 2020. We saw plenty of young prospects make their debuts, some proving to not be ready for big-league action and others easily solidifying a spot for themselves in 2021. Some players had been overlooked in the past, but finally got a chance to shine this season and made the most of it. If there is one thing that this large influx of new players showed, it’s that the 2021 fantasy baseball season is going to be difficult as ever. So here are 5 players that I loved this season and will be looking to target next season as well.
Dominic Smith – 1B, OF, DH – New York Mets
Man, talk about a breakout season. Dom Smith finally got his big shot in the Mets’ lineup after the weird departure of Yoenis Cespedes in the second week of the season and he certainly made the most of it. Having eligibility in the outfield as well as at first base and DH, Smith was a lock for my lineup during the entirety of the 2020 fantasy season. He mashed 10 home runs in a shortened season and hit for very solid contact as well, finishing the season batting .316 with 42 RBIs. Another standout stat is his massive tendency to hit doubles. Smith nearly had just as many doubles as singles, tallying 21 and 24, respectively. The Mets’ slugger will need to look to decrease his strikeout rate in 2021, but he should find himself as the centerpiece of the Mets’ lineup next season. Pair that with the fact that he will likely have an ADP outside of the top 100 and you have yourself a lock for my draft queue in 2021.
Triston McKenzie – SP – Cleveland Indians
I think Kevin Durant may have to move over for the new Slim Reaper. McKenzie stands at 6 foot 5 inches and weighs only 165 lbs. But this is not basketball! So who cares about how much McKenzie weighs. He has a massive wingspan and gets some incredible movement on his pitches. His fastball spin rate is in the 62nd percentile, which is above the league average. Being that McKenzie relies so heavily upon his fastball, throwing it over 50% of the time, having a high spin rate is a great thing. Other highly successful pitchers that are heavily reliant on their fastball are mostly successful due to their spin rates, as well. Gerrit Cole is in the 94th percentile for his fastball spin rate and he is a top-five pitcher in baseball. I am not saying that McKenize will make that leap in 2021, but the groundwork is there. McKenzie also boasts a 90th percentile K rate, and I love his 2021 upside. He will be a late-round flier that I will be taking 10 times out of 10.
Brandon Lowe – 2B, OF – Tampa Bay Rays
Lowe will likely be one of the highest players selected of this list, but I believe that can be attributed to position scarcity… which is also what makes him so valuable. Second base is a very shallow position, with names like DJ LeMahieu, Cavan Biggio, and Whit Merrifield holding up the top end, but there is a massive cliff after them. Lowe broke out this season and showed that he is deserving of a top 100 pick next season. He hit for both average and power finishing with 13 home runs and batting .269 in the shortened 2020 season. He will need to improve his plate discipline in 2021, as in 2020 he struck out 58 times – nearly once a game. Despite his poor discipline, however, Lowe proved that his 2019 All-Star season was not an outlier and that he can consistently produce the numbers that we saw in both 2019 and 2020. He is also guaranteed to be surrounded by dangerous hitters like Austin Meadows and Willy Adames in the Tampa Bay lineup. Lowe is worth a higher-end draft pick in 2021.
Elieser Hernandez – SP – Miami Marlins
Hernandez had a disappointing end to his season after suffering a lat strain just before the Marlins entered the playoffs, but that should not shy fantasy owners away in 2021. Hernandez showed great promise in his 6 starts with the Marlins in 2020 striking out 34 over 25.2 innings pitched. His high strikeout rate could be due in part to the fact that his slider was near untouchable. Hernandez threw his slider 159 times in 2020 and only allowed 4 (!!!) hits and tallied 16 strikeouts. To put that in perspective, that represents a 10% strikeout rate for his slider as compared to a 6% strikeout rate for his fastball. With those levels of production, Hernandez shows a lot of promise to repeat his success in 2021 or even improve upon it. One area of concern for Hernandez is his HR/9 stat. In 2020, Hernandez pitched to a 1.8 HR/9, substantially higher than the league average of 1.28 HR/9. If Hernandez can better locate his pitches in 2021, he will almost surely continue to improve as a pitcher for the 4th straight season.
Luke Voit – 1B, DH – New York Yankees
Okay, okay, maybe I’m being a little biased here… but Luke Voit may be the next Babe Ruth. No, I’m only kidding. But Luke Voit did have a massive offensive breakthrough this season. He looked like a completely different batter for the Yankees this year and even ended up leading the whole league in home runs with 22 in a shortened season. Voit’s slugging percentage on fastballs this season was through the roof at .787, which, in short, represents the fact that he was on base all the time this season without including walks. Voit also barreled 21 balls in 2020, meaning that he made some seriously solid contact. Voit seems on track to continue to mash the baseball in 2021 and at a very deep first base position, Voit should provide some value in the later rounds of the draft. He will certainly not be drafted in that Freeman/Abreu/Bellinger tier, but he will likely be selected amongst that next group of first basemen. Be sure to keep Voit in your mind on draft day if you want to get a piece of him.
