Joe Burrow will finish the 2020 season as a top twelve quarterback. This may not seem like the world’s most compelling argument as pocket-passing rookie QBs have been lackluster in recent years. Quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Mitchell Trubisky, and Josh Rosen have given fantasy owners a bad taste in their mouths when selecting a rookie quarterback to lead their team.
Sure, dual threat QBs like Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson see plenty of success due to their rushing upside paired with their electric arms. But can a pocket passer be just as successful? The answer is yes and Joe Burrow is the man who is going to make it happen in 2020.
The first major reason to support Burrow’s success is history. Sure, history has not been great to rookie quarterbacks as only seven quarterbacks since 1983 have finished as a QB1. But here’s the thing – five of those quarterbacks have been within the last 10 years.
The league is shifting towards more pass-happy offenses that are seeing quarterbacks throwing sometimes upwards of 35 times a game. The Bengals actually averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game in 2019. So immediately, that shows that there is massive volume for Burrow straight out of the gate. But that is something we will get into later.
Staying on the topic of recent rookie success, you may say “But Zach, I know one of those five quarterbacks was Cam Newton in 2011!” You’d be correct about that. Cam was on another level in 2011 scoring a massive 14 rushing touchdowns. But, 2011 also happened to be Cam’s best passing yardage year as well. Cam accumulated 4051 passing yards, eclipsing 4000 yards for the only time in his career thus far. Two of the other five rookie quarterbacks on the list are also prolific pocket passers. Both Andrew Luck and Dak Prescott finished in the top 10 during their rookie seasons.
So what exactly does all of this mean in relation to Joe Burrow? Well, it proves that there has been a recent upward trend of rookie quarterbacks finishing within the top 10 at their position and it also proves that it is becoming more and more common for rookies to have successful first seasons when it comes to fantasy football. But there needs to be another necessary component in order to equate to fantasy success; and that factor is opportunity.
As mentioned before, the Bengals threw the ball the sixth-most times in the NFL in 2019 at 38.5 pass attempts per game. This is likely because they were trailing in most of their 2019 games, however it could also be in part because of their new head coach Zac Taylor. Taylor is a descendent of the Sean McVay coaching tree, which has proven to be quite a dynamic and offensive-minded tree. Taylor was able to install parts of his ideal offense, but was missing one crucial piece, his franchise quarterback.
Cue Joe Burrow. Burrow posted one of, if not the most impressive single college season for a quarterback in 2019 leading LSU to a National Championship. He threw the ball a whopping 35 times per game during his senior season at LSU and proved to be the pro-style quarterback that Taylor was looking for. The cards fell perfectly and the Bengals ended up with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft and were able to select Burrow.
So if I still do not have you on board with me, let’s take a look at another major factor; the supporting cast around Burrow. Reflecting on some of the aforementioned busts, perhaps they struggled due to the lack of talent around them.
Rosen was thrust into an offense where a then 34-year-old Larry Fitzgerald was his best option in the passing game. Likewise, Mitchell Trubisky was throwing to players like Kendall Wright and Josh Bellamy. It seems foolish for franchises to expect big things from their rookie quarterbacks when they do not support them with a talented supporting cast.
That is where Burrow is different. He will be stepping into a situation with several different weapons including an All-Pro wideout in AJ Green. Aside from the multi-skilled AJ Green, Burrow will also have several different types of tools. He will have gritty, possession-oriented Tyler Boyd, the deep-threat speedster John Ross, and the exciting rookie Tee Higgins. On top of those four wideouts, Burrow also has two extremely capable pass-catching rushers coming out of the backfield in Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard. The inky unknown position at this point is tight end, but CJ Uzomah has proven to be solid in years past.
To quantify just how much passing opportunity lies ahead of Burrow, the 2019 season provides a solid metric for judging targets. In 2019, Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley accounted for 616 pass attempts. That combined number would have been good for tying for the third-highest attempts in the whole entire league, behind only Jared Goff and Jameis Winston. Burrow is going to have the chance to take to the air several times a game, throwing to a top-tier set of receiving options who can make things happen after the catch.
If all of these reasons haven’t gotten you on board with Burrow yet, let’s pivot away from football and take a look at the fantasy numbers. Currently, Burrow sits as the 24th quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts. He is going in the thirteenth round and his ADP sits at 158th overall. That is a nearly free draft price at the back end of drafts which is a rarity for such a highly touted rookie quarterback.
Joe Burrow is certainly walking into a favorable situation for the 2020 NFL season. He does have the difficulty of being in a tough division with some very solid defenses, but that may work to the benefit of his fantasy upside. If he and the Bengals are playing from behind frequently, then that will mean that there will be more pass attempts to be had.
There are lots of cards that need to fall into place for Joe Burrow to finish as a QB1, but the framework to do so is certainly there. Perhaps one of the more understated things that Burrow just seems to have is the knack to win. Similar to Baker Mayfield in 2018, Burrow just has that air about him that makes you feel like he is going to do something special every single time he touches the ball.
Well, I’ll consider that to be my best attempt at explaining Joe Burrow’s potential to be a QB1 in 2020. I know I’ve talked myself into Burrow, especially given his current draft price. Sometimes buying that lottery ticket of a player in the 12th, 13th, or 14th round winds up paying off in the long run. I know I’ll have a ton of Joe Burrow on my fantasy rosters in 2020 and you should as well. Time to just sit back and enjoy the ride.
