Davante Adams proved to all of his owners in 2018 that he was worthy of the late second or early third round price tag on him. He had his most consistent fantasy season in his young five year career, posting an average of 14.6 fantasy points per game. This was an increase of nearly four full points from the prior two years’ averages. So what changed and turned him into a beast? And why exactly should you believe he’s not a one-hit wonder?
Well, for starters, Adams became Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target. In 2016 (the last time the two were both healthy for a full season), Adams only saw 117 targets because Jordy ‘Father Time’ Nelson was still in Green Bay and was Rodgers favorite target, netting 152 targets. However, fast forward two years to 2018, ignore that 2017 season where the Great Brett Hundley Experiment crashed and burned, and you can see how Adams’ target share soared. He saw an insane 169 targets, which was actually double the next closest Packer receiver, Jimmy Graham at 68 targets.
So if this hasn’t already convinced you, let’s take a look forward at the 2019 Packers. The Packers hardly made any skill position moves in the offseason, leaving them with essentially the same corps as 2018, minus Randall Cobb who left for Dallas. Cobb leaving is a pretty significant loss too, as he was Rodgers’ fourth-favorite target behind Adams, Graham, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS). Valdes-Scantling is poised to take over a bigger role in the upcoming season with the departure of Cobb. However, this shouldn’t serve as a huge knock on Adams either. In 2018, Valdes-Scantling ran 41% of his route from the slot, showing that the team is comfortable with putting him there despite his large 6 foot 4 inch frame. Aside from MVS in the slot, Geronimo Allison and Equanimeous St. Brown will compete for the other outside WR spot. Allison missed nearly three quarters of the 2018 season due to injury, and St. Brown only saw 36 targets on the season. All of these signs are pointing to Adams being the go-to option for Rodgers again this year.
On top of the changing targets, the Packers are also getting a change in coaching staff. The Mike McCarthy era is finally over in Green Bay, and Matt LaFleur looks to bring a new offense in. As the offensive coordinator of the Titans in 2018, LaFleur ran an incredibly balanced offense, with the second highest rushing percentage at 51%. The 2018 Packers, on the other hand, ran the second-most imbalanced offense, at a whopping 66% pass rate. Now while this may sound like a bad thing for Adams targets, it will undoubtedly increase the quality of his targets. His 65.7% catch rate was impressive for the amount of targets he saw in 2018, but was far from the league’s best. Fellow Pro-Bowler Michael Thomas led the league with a massive 85% catch rate on 147 targets. There is certainly a correlation between the quality of Thomas’ targets and the fact that the Saints are a 55%/45% pass-run team, good for 7th in the league. Balanced offenses force teams to respect the run and disallow teams to double and triple-team top receivers, allowing for them to find more open space and make more of their targets. Adams can certainly benefit from a balanced offense, as can rising running back Aaron Jones.
Adams was everything that I hoped he’d be in 2018 and more, but I think that he can be even better this season. Between a new coaching staff bringing a new offense and the departure of some old faces, Adams will be raking in the fantasy points yet again this year.
