October is upon us which means Spooky SZN is here. DON’T BE AFRAID OF THESE PLAYERS.
Every fantasy player’s nightmare is getting rid of someone too early in the season and regretting it later on. In a weird 2020 season where we’ve already had one game postponed you need to dive deeper into every factor that renders a player’s production. So let’s break down a few players and why they haven’t met their expectations so far, because I’m confident they’ll get better as the year goes on.
DON’T PANIC ON JOE MIXON (Buy Low)
Here’s a look at Mixon’s stat line through 3 games in 2020.
9/13 vs Chargers
19 ATT 69 YDS 3.6 AVG 0 TD 1 REC 2 YDS 1 Lost Fumble ~ 6.1 Fantasy Points (PPR)
9/17 vs Browns
16 ATT 46 YDS 2.9 AVG 0 TD 4 REC 40 YDS ~ 12.60 Fantasy Points (PPR)
9/27 vs Eagles
17 ATT 49 YDS 2.9 AVG 0 TD 2 REC 16 YDS ~ 8.5 Fantasy Points (PPR)
Now let’s compare this to Mixon’s first 3 games in 2019.
Week 1 ~ 3.7 Fantasy Points
Week 2 ~ 5.7 Fantasy Points
Week 3 ~ 17.4 Fantasy Points
Mixon’s First 3 Games in:
2019 ~ 26.8
2020 ~ 27.2
+.4 DIFF
Mixon’s Average in 2019 through first 3 games ~ 8.9
Mixon’s Average ROS ~ 15.27
I realize a lot of factors go into a players’ production. For a Running Back, the most important factor is the offensive line. Per PFF, the Cincinnati Bengals have the 29th ranked offensive line after the first 3 weeks of this season. This may look bad but in 2019 the Cincinnati Bengals finished the season with the 30th ranked offensive line. This leads me to my conclusion for Joe Mixon and his ROS production. DON’T PANIC ON JOE MIXON.
DON’T PANIC ON KENYAN DRAKE (Buy Low)
Here’s another Running Back who through 3 weeks has not lived up to his 1st/2nd round ADP. Drake’s first 3 games:
Week 1 ~ 14.5 Fantasy Points
Week 2 ~ 11.5 Fantasy Points
Week 3 ~ 8.9 Fantasy Points
Drake’s first two opponents, SF and WSH so far through 2020 rank as the 3rd and 15th toughest opponents for Fantasy Running backs. Drake’s week 3 matchup was a favorable matchup and he underperformed. The biggest factor that rendered his performance was that this was the first game this season where the Cardinals found themselves trailing in the game. This should translate to Drake seeing more action in the passing game however Hopkins has proved to be Murrays go to and Drake only has 5 Targets through 3 games. Whatever you do, don’t panic. There is no denying Nuk Hopkins is one of the most talented receivers in the league but this is the NFL, teams will adapt and realize that this heavy reliance on Hopkins can also be a weakness for the team and the Kingsbury offense. There may be no stopping Hopkins but teams will start to overcompensate and Drake should see the benefits. Drake has a very favorable schedule coming up. Next 4 games:
CAR
NYJ
DAL
SEA
All of which have given up a ton of points through 3 weeks and 2 teams which are in the top 3 for giving up the most points to Fantasy Running Backs. On top of this juicy schedule, Hopkins is currently dealing with a nagging injury which might lead to him missing time. DON’T PANIC ON KENYAN DRAKE.
DON’T PANIC ON ZACH ERTZ (Buy Low)
This should go without an explanation but through 3 weeks Ertz ranks as the TE #11 which is not holding up to his expectations of being a top 5 TE/ Top 10 TE at least. The Eagles receiving core is currently falling apart. Jackson, Jeffrey, Reagor, Whiteside, and Goedert are all out this week with most of those names predicted to miss more than a few games. The Eagles are not off to a hot start with a 0-2-1 record and with a tough schedule coming up, I’m expecting the Eagles to be playing from behind in the majority of those games. Next 5 games: SF, PIT, BAL, NYG, DAL. The expectation is that the Eagles will be throwing the ball early and often and for this Sunday Night game and possibly a few more after, the only weapons Wentz has any rapport with is Greg Ward and Zach Ertz. DON’T PANIC ON ZACH ERTZ.
DON’T PANIC ON AJ BROWN (Buy Low)
AJ Brown has only played in one game this season and put up an underwhelming 8.9 Fantasy Points. His 8 Targets and 82% snap share were the only positives from week 1. Since then, Brown has missed the last two weeks due to a knee injury but is said to be ready to go for week 5 when the Titans get back from their newly instated surprise bye week. AJ Brown’s rookie season is a great implication of what I’m confident will transpire into the rest of the 2020 season. I found a strong correlation between Brown’s snap share percentage ~ Titans Wins/Loss record and his fantasy production.
When Brown had a snap share percentage of less than 70%:
Titans Record ~ 4-5
Fantasy Production ~ Averaged 9.6 Fantasy Points
When Brown had a snap share percentage of 70% or more:
Titans Record ~ 5-2
Fantasy Production ~ Averaged 18.62 Fantasy Points
In games AJ Brown had a snap share percentage of 70% or more in 2019, he was WR #7 and had the 6th highest weekly average out of all WR’s.
AJ Brown is an elite weapon in the NFL and has solidified himself as a game-changer. Very rarely do we come across a guy that has the potential to change the outcome of the game alone. AJ Brown as a rookie finished as WR #21 (PPR) and was WR #6 in YAC. According to Football Outsiders, YAC+ is a metric used to determine how well a WR after the catch was able to produce over the expected average compared to other receivers. AJ Brown ranked #1 in YAC+ and is the reason why he fits the description of a game-changer. DON’T PANIC ON AJ BROWN.
If you didn’t see a player on this list that doesn’t mean to panic on them. These are just the 4 players that stood out the most to me and I felt needed to be highlighted. Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Zach Ertz, and AJ Brown are all players you should NOT PANIC on if you currently have them rostered. If you don’t have these players rostered these are good buy-low targets heading into week 4. Get these players while you can before it’s too late because no one likes to overpay for things, especially in this economy.
