I know, I know, we’re still about four months away from fantasy drafts for redraft leagues. However, something about the weather being nice, or maybe the NFL Draft hanging in the balance at the end of the month, has me in the fantasy football mindset. It’s really difficult to think about a ton before the NFL Draft, but the first round of fantasy drafts seems like a pretty good place to start.
Battle for Top Dawg – 1.01
So where else can we start other than the first overall pick? There are three or four good options here and they all really depend on what format you will be playing in. Let’s take a look at PPR drafts. I would say that the most common pick for first overall is probably going to be Christian McCaffrey again. A freakish year of injuries derailed the do-it-all back making owners have to think twice for 2021, but the fact that McCaffrey is essentially a running back and a wide receiver is just too appealing to pass up. Another guy in play at 1.01 in PPR could also be Davante Adams. The WR1 in Green Bay put up video game numbers in 2020 to the tune of 115 receptions for over 1,300 yards and 18 TDs. As long as Aaron Rodgers is the sheriff in Green Bay, Adams will always be his right-hand man and will have massive fantasy upside.
Now let’s hop over to non-PPR land. Let’s think of half-PPR and standard formats specifically. I think that if you were not sold on McCaffrey and wanted someone a little bit safer, then you could look to two main dudes: Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Kamara carried plenty of fantasy managers to league championships in Week 16 by posting 6(!!!) touchdowns against the Vikings. Kamara averaged the third-most fantasy points per game at 22.7, behind only McCaffrey and one other man… the other RB in play at #1 overall! That, of course, is Dalvin Cook. Cook had a huge fantasy season as well, with some massive, week-winning performances. Both of these players are the workhorses of their respective offenses and are guaranteed a huge workload. No going wrong here!
The Middle of The Pack – 1.03 to 1.07
Now the waters get a bit murkier. Who are some of the other guys who are first-rounders in 2021? Let’s stick with the running back theme. There’s a man who some refer to as “King” and may have just done something in 2020 that only 7 other players have done in the history of the NFL. Yeah, I’m talking about Derrick Henry. Speaking of guaranteed workload, Henry is the poster child for an offensive centerpiece. The Titans run the ball about 50% of the time, a rushing percentage behind only two other teams in the league, the Ravens and the Patriots. Week in and week out, you can almost guarantee that Henry is going to get 20 carries per game which is an incredible floor for a running back. I see Henry as more of a 1.02-1.05 range pick.
So that gives us 5 first-rounders so far: McCaffrey, Adams, Cook, Kamara, and Henry. We still have 7 other players to make up a full first round. Everyone knows that running back is such a vital position in fantasy football, so we can only expect that more than 4 will be selected in the first round. Who’s next? It’s absurd, but there’s a second Green Bay Packer in the mix here! Aaron Jones! There was some uncertainty as to where Jones would land after testing free agency, but ultimately, Green Bay brought back the dynamic running back. The Packers essentially like to look to two people in the red zone, Adams and Jones, which give Jones a huge first-round upside.
The last running back that I think falls into this ‘top tier’ category is a tricky one. He is dominant at his position when on the field, but we have only seen a very small sample size of him through his two years in the league. I’m talking about Saquon Barkley, of course. Barkley suffered a season-ending ACL tear in 2020 which has caused his draft stock to fall, but only slightly. Heading into the 2020 season, Barkley was unanimously a top 3 fantasy pick. This season, coming off of an injury, I expect Barkley to fall into the middle of round one… Unless you have that token over-eager Giants fan in your league (No, Kenny Golladay is not going to carry the Giants to the Super Bowl ☺). Barkley is a risky first-rounder, but I think that in his case, the reward outweighs the risk.
Livin’ on The Edge – 1.08 to 1.10
The end of the first round is a beautiful place to be. Don’t be that guy who is upset because you didn’t end up with a top 3 pick. Being right on the cusp of the round 1-2 turn is fantastic because you can get some incredible talent and you can get two of them pretty close to one another! But the name of the game is believing your gut if you find yourself near the turn. You have to take risks on guys you like, because they may not make it back to you in the second round.
So who are some of these guys? Well, let’s break into the world of wide receivers. There are 3 wideouts that I think can fall within this range. The first of which is DeAndre Hopkins. There is no denying that Hopkins immediately led to an offensive boom in Arizona. The only major knock on him this season was his ability to disappear every now and again. He would be on a roll of 20 point performances and then would throw up an underwhelming performance of 6 or 10 points. Regardless, he is still a dog week in and week out and is going to be in the top five to ten wide receivers come the end of the season.
Another wide receiver that should be in contention for the end of the first round is Tyreek Hill. The major knock on Tyreek Hill has always been his reliance on big plays, but that changed in 2020. Hill hauled in 87 receptions, including 3 games of 9 or more receptions. Much like Davante Adams, Hill will always be a great fantasy option as long as his quarterback is around. And considering that Patrick Mahomes has a 10 year, half-a-billion-dollar contract… I think it’s safe to say that Hill is going to have Mahomes around for a while.
The last wide receiver that I think will be a first-round talent is Stefon Diggs. Diggs surprised many people in 2020 after posting a huge season as a first-year member of the Buffalo Bills. Many people thought that being traded to the Bills would decrease Diggs’ stock, but it did quite the opposite as he formed an immediate bromance with Josh Allen. Diggs remains the only major receiving option in Buffalo, which leaves him poised to post yet another huge fantasy season. I supposed the trend I’m seeing here is that as long as a wide receiver is best friends with his quarterback, they are going to be a first-round talent!
Forget Me Not – 1.11 to 1.12
Okay, now all of the bonafide studs are gone. Or are they? Every year, the most consistent fantasy football player somehow gets overlooked. That is no one other than Travis Kelce. He consistently falls into the early to mid-second round, but this is the year that I am saying he deserves to be a first-rounder. Kelce’s consistency is arguably more valuable than any other player because of the scarcity at the tight end position. Aside from Kelce, maybe only Darren Waller and George Kittle are even close to the top tier of fantasy tight end. Taking Kelce will give you a positional advantage over your opponent every week with almost 100% certainty.
Now I know this is a bit of a cop-out… but for the 12th overall pick, I’m going to just give a few guys that could sneak their way into the back end of the first round. The first is Jonathan Taylor. Taylor proved at the end of 2020 that he is absolutely a workhorse back and should be poised for even more carries in 2021. Another name to consider is Joe Mixon. It seems like every year Mixon is drafted in the first round and never returns on that value. But this season, Mixon will have sole ownership of the Cincinnati backfield and an improved line. Not to mention the Bengals have an early draft pick and could bolster their offense even further. Flipping over to the wide receiver position again, I think AJ Brown could provide some huge upside. When he wasn’t hurt in 2020, Brown was one of, if not the most, dominant wide receivers in the league. Injuries hindered him a bit, but a healthy Brown is a scary thing to think about. One last name to consider as a late first-rounder is DK Metcalf. Metcalf came out of the gates HOT in 2020, but somewhat faded into oblivion as the season went on. This was due, in part, to the whole Seattle offense sort of collapsing. But, Seattle got a wake-up call this offseason after Wilson threatened to leave for another team, so perhaps they will “Let Russ Cook” and Metcalf will be the prime beneficiary.
These are obviously not set in stone and there is a whole mess of events that still need to unfold before we can determine the first round for sure. But, barring some massive changes in the league, these potential first-rounders seem like a great place to start! You can never begin draft prepping too early!
