Kareem Hunt is one of those guys in 2020 that I am doing everything possible to draft on all of my rosters. I love his potential upside for a few reasons.
First, let’s take a look at what he has done thus far in the league. Despite only playing in 35 games across three seasons, Hunt has posted some remarkable stats. During his rookie season, after he was thrust into a starting role following a Spencer Ware knee injury, Hunt rushed for 1,327 yards and eight touchdowns. This is even more impressive considering that Kansas City had a mediocre offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. Pair that rushing production with an additional 53 receptions and three touchdowns and you have the RB4 in 2017.
The following 2018 season was cut short due to a suspension, but Hunt was on pace to post roughly 1,200 rushing yards and ten touchdowns. But his upside in the backfield is not just limited to rushing. Hunt is a far above average pass-catcher and has even received praise about possibly seeing time as a slot receiver. In 2018, Hunt was also on track for 38 receptions and an additional ten touchdowns.
Using these stats, Hunt would have finished with 334 fantasy points in a PPR format, good for RB5 – behind only Saquan Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, and Alvin Kamara. That would have placed Hunt as a solid RB1 in both 2017 and 2018.
Another one of Hunt’s major strengths on top of his massive production is his consistency. Sure, Nick Chubb is the bell-cow in the Cleveland offense, but in his eight games in 2018, Hunt finished as an RB2 62.5% of the time. Extrapolating that consistency measure out for the rest of his three year career (ignoring suspension time, missed games, etc.), Hunt is the 11th-most consistent running back in the NFL, finishing as either an RB1 or an RB2 in a whopping 68.6% of games played.
The last aspect that I would like to look at comes as a product of ten-zone and goal line efficiency. It is extremely well-documented how poorly Nick Chubb performed within the ten-zone last season. Chubb was given 32 carries within the ten-yard line (hence ten-zone), tied for first in the league with Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. But here’s the difference – on those 32 carries, McCaffrey and Cook scored ten and 11 times, respectively. Nick Chubb, on the other hand, only scored four times.
These numbers get even worse when you look at performance on goal-line situations (inside the five-yard line). Nick Chubb was given the ball 15 times inside the five-yard line, good for third in the league. On those five carries, Chubb had -14 yards rushing, yes NEGATIVE 14, and only two touchdowns. This production either shows extreme unluckiness or perhaps Chubb is not a goal-line back.
So let’s take a quick peek at Kareem Hunt’s production on red zone carries. In the ten-zone, Kareem Hunt had two attempts for nine yards and two touchdowns. Inside the five yard line, he was one-for-one on his rushes, scoring from three-yards out.
But there is one more piece to the puzzle yet. The Browns recently hired former Vikings’ offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski as their head coach. Stefanski is well-documented as a run-first play caller who favors a workhorse back. Along the goal line in 2019, Dalvin Cook showed massive production in the red zone under Stefanski. Cook accounted for the third-most red zone touchdowns in 2019. Stefanski needs a running back that can produce in the red zone for his offense to work to its full effect. Should Chubb struggle in the early season along the goal line, Stefanski could look to a different option, leaving Hunt with a substantial uptick in more ‘meaningful’ (inside the red zone) touches.
So sure, Nick Chubb may still have a handle on the starting job in Cleveland, but there is still a lot of production to be had with Kareem Hunt. This is especially true if Hunt sees an increase in targets due to his work out of the slot or perhaps sees the goal line work turn his way. Half-point PPR and full PPR are definitely the formats to own Hunt in. But currently as it stands, in any format, Hunt in the middle of the sixth round is a steal and a half. Join me on the Hunt train and let’s ride off in the sunset to fantasy success.
