Rushing and receiving touchdowns accounted for roughly 19% of all flex (RBs, WRs and TEs) PPR fantasy points in 2019. That’s quite a solid chunk of points being found in the end zone.
While diving in to player stats from last season I paid close attention to touchdown totals vs. the volume of work players saw. I looked closely at opportunities inside the red-zone, the ten-zone and inside the five-yard line for RBs. I then compared those stats to how many touchdowns those opportunities created and noticed some players saw significant opportunities but those didn’t translate to touchdowns.
So that’s what I’m highlighting here, some players that REALLY stood out to me for their low touchdown totals when the opportunities were absolutely there. Some of the players listed are already viewed as great great players at their position, I just wanted to highlight that some of them could do better in 2020!
There are plenty of players I could list who I think would have more touchdowns than they did last season This list is more dedicated to the players I’d throw some money on to score more than they did last year based on opportunities.
Let’s dive in.
Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara was a TD monster in 2018, finishing behind just Todd Gurley in total rushing and receiving touchdowns. He scored a total of 18 touchdowns and wound up leaving a lot of hope for fantasy managers that he would replicate those numbers in 2019. Unfortunately, things didn’t go as planned.
In the 2019 season, Kamara saw himself with similar volume he had in the previous seasons. He accounted for about 60% of offensive carries when he was active and commanded a 20.9% target share in the air. The volume is there for Kamara, he just needs to punch the ball into the endzone.
Looking at his red zone stats, Kamara was fifth in red zone targets (11) among RBs. He led all RBs in ten-zone targets (7) and receptions (5) but left with zero touchdowns. He was one of only two players with over four ten-zone receptions without a TD, Christian Kirk being the other.
Kamara isn’t going to lose opportunities in 2020 and I don’t see him doing much worse. To me, he’s worth his weight as a top-4 draft pick.
Leonard Fournette
Fournette had a great 2019 season, finishing the year as the RB7 in PPR leagues while having 1,152 rushing yards, 522 receiving yards on 76 receptions, all of which were career highs. However, he only had 3 total touchdowns on the season on a total of 341 touches. The next RB with 3 or less touchdowns was Frank Gore with two touchdowns on 166 touches.
The opportunities were there for Fournette in 2020, he just couldn’t punch it into the end zone. He had 26 total touches inside the ten-yard line (23 rushes and three receptions) and scored all three of his touchdowns from this range. That TD rate was at a lowly 11.54% rate. Compare that to an average of 31.23% among all other RBs with over 20 touches inside the ten, of which there were 15 RBs to do so.
With the full offensive line returning in 2020 there aren’t any offensive line issues to fear for Fournette and he could be in line for another solid rushing season.
Nick Chubb
Chubb could potentially see more TD production in 2020 after scoring a total of eight in 2019, even with a full season of Kareem Hunt being active.
If we look at Chubb’s splits from pre-Hunt and post-hunt there’s a noticeable drop in some key stats, but some can see some major improvement in 2020. I don’t believe Chubb will see his receptions as high as they were in the first half of 2020, at least not with Hunt active on the Browns roster. The two touchdowns in the second half of the season, however, is where Chubb could see a major bounceback and make up for his lack of receptions.
Looking at red zone stats, Nick Chubb was fourth among RBs in red zone rushing attempts. If we shorten the playing field to ten yards, Chubb had the second-most rushing attempts and then tied for third for most rushes inside the five-yard line! But the man still only had two touchdowns from his rushes inside the five with a 13.33% touchdown percentage, compared to the average of 46.67% of all other RBs with over ten rushes inside the five. No other RB had below a 25% TD percentage with over 10 rushes inside the five besides Frank Gore, who had 18.18% (2 touchdowns on 11 rushes).
Basically, Nick Chubb was wildly inefficient with prime opportunities near the goal line and couldn’t capitalize. I expect that to be different this season.
Robert Woods
There’s been plenty of hype around Robert Woods this offseason and a lot of that comes from Brandin Cooks no longer being on the team, but I’d be happy to add to the hype.
The 2019 Rams started their season with heavy usage of Cooper Kupp and he dominated, but following the teams’ week 9 bye there was a new beast in the passing game. Robert Woods played a tame role in the offense prior to the bye week but his production was on a new level for the last half of the season.
Woods ended the season with a team-high 139 targets with 1,134 yards but just two receiving touchdowns (he had a rushing TD in week six). If he had his final seven per-game stretch throughout the year he would’ve finished second in targets (180), receptions (118) and yards (1,515) with double the touchdowns he had in 2019 (4.5) which would have put him as the WR2 in PPR formats.
Also, Woods was second among WRs in total touches (107) in 2019, his 17 rushing attempts helped boost him from ninth in receptions.
But the yards aren’t what I’m here for. Obviously Robert Woods had a great second-half stretch and do I believe he could be that good in 2020? I sure do. But I’m here for those touchdowns.
Woods had a TD% (TDs/touches) of 2.8% while the average among any other receiver with over 70 touches was about 8%. If we gave Woods a TD% of 8% he would’ve had about eight touchdowns. To go from three to eight touchdowns is a major difference between seasons but entirely possible for Woods now that Cooks is no longer in the picture.
Woods shouldn’t be slept on this season.
Travis Kelce
Let me set the scene for you. Patrick Mahomes is your QB, you are arguably the best tight end in the league and you’ve led all tight ends in targets inside the ten-yard line for the past two years. Those three added up you would think touchdowns would be astronomical, or at least pretty high, right?
Sure, in 2018 that was certainly the case when Travis Kelce had ten total touchdowns on the season. But almost the opposite can be said about his 2019 season. Travis Kelce finished the 2019 season as the number one tight end in PPR leagues but has such a strong chance of doing better in 2020 with an increase in touchdowns.
If we look strictly inside the red zone, Kelce had an incredibly low catch% (36.84%) in comparison to his season-long average (71.43%) and in his career red-zone history (about 54%) . He also managed to control ~30% of the teams’ total red zone targets (%Tgt in the chart above) so the volume is there.
But let’s look deeper, or closer, and look at his targets inside the ten-yard line.
On roughly 41% of the entire teams’ targets inside the ten, Kelce only managed to catch three of them for two touchdowns. That’s a solid touchdown rate, but what about that catch rate of 25%?! In 2018 Kelce caught 58.3% of his ten-zone targets and 100% (three of three) in 2017, so we know that this was potentially just a bad year inside the ten.
It’s a little crazy to think that the ‘16, ‘17, ‘18 and ‘19 TE1 could do BETTER in 2020, but these stats certainly lead me to believe it’s possible.
Travis Kelce had 12 targets inside the ten yard line, second most in the league.
He only cuaght three for two TDs. This man could find himself with a lot more in 2020, couldn’t he?
So who do you think I got wrong? Who else do you think will certainly score more in 2020? Let me know @KyleKrajewski!
