Doing some fantasy research recently and I decided to look at players who are being drafted way too early or way too late in current mock drafts in comparison to their average projections found on FantasyPros. I’ve compiled a list of the players that I feel carry the most value from these findings, and the players that I’m avoiding at all costs based on where they’re being drafted.
VALUES
RB Kenyan Drake MIA +7 (Projected RB19, Drafted RB26)
I’m all in on the value Kenyan Drake could bring to a fantasy team this season. Being drafted in the early fifth round you could potentially get the value of the RBs being drafted over a full round ahead of him. Drake finished the 2018 season as the RB14 in all of fantasy football but finished second on his own team in rushing attempts and yards, falling behind 65 year-old Frank Gore by 36 attempts and 187 yards!!! What!! Drake commanded the backfield receiving attack and that’s where he claimed his fame with 53 receptions, 477 yards and 5 touchdowns. With a new coaching system in Miami this season there’s a huge potential that Drake could be utilized like the full-utility back he can be without fear of Frank Gore stealing his touches. Drake seems to be being drafted at his floor value when his ceiling will make him a steal in drafts.
WR Julian Edelman NE +7 (Projected WR10, Drafted WR17)
Seven spots isn’t a lot but when you’re projected to be a WR1 and being drafted a full round behind other receivers he’s projected around, it just screams value. On a per-game analysis, Edelman hasn’t found himself outside of the top-15. A healthy Edelman means a reliable WR1 in your starting lineup and if you’re getting him an entire round after his value should put him? It’s an easy decision.
WR Dede Westbrook JAX +15 (Projected WR30, Drafted WR45)
Value is value, even if it’s on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last season, Dede Westbrook finished as the WR33 in PPR with the deadly duo of Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler as the QBs. This season the Jaguars brought in Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles at QB in an attempt to revive the offense. Do I think they can? Absolutely! The Jaguars offense in 2018 was ROUGH. As a team they finished 26th in passing yards (3,109) and 30th in receiving TDs (15). Realistically, the only way this offense could go is up and the main beneficiary is Dede Westbrook, WR1 of the Jacksonville Jaguars. You could add Marqise Lee +34 (Projected WR43, Drafted WR77) to this list as well but I think Westbrook is the man to own on the receiving end in Jacksonville!
WR Mohamed Sanu ATL +32 (Projected WR42, Drafted WR74)
Damn, I love me some Mohamed Sanu. Last season, Sanu finished as the WR31 in PPR with 178.2 points and as the WR30 in 2017 with 168.3 points. I truly don’t see Sanu dropping out of the top-50 in WR ranks this season and that’s mostly because I’m a big fan of Matt Ryan once again this season and a big year from the Atlanta offense. The addition of Calvin Ridley last year barely cut into Sanu’s production as he still maintained a healthy 94-target season following a 96 target season in 2017. On the other hand, the Falcons were forced to throw the ball a lot more in 2018 following a handful of backfield injuries, roughly 80 more pass attempts. There’s a great amount of value to come from Sanu this season, especially when you can get this man for free in drafts.
RED FLAGS
RB Kareem Hunt CLE -18 (Projected RB54, Drafted RB36)
I feel like I don’t need to say anything more about Kareem Hunt other than this man will not touch the field until week 10, why is he being drafted?! Not only is he being drafted in the first place, but he’s being drafted with the assumption that he’ll have an immediate impact in a backfield that already has a feature back in Nick Chubb and a receiving back in Duke Johnson. It’s mildly understandable that Kareem can see the Pro Bowl production that he saw in Kansas City but not ASAP. Do not draft Kareem Hunt unless you’re expecting to drop him once the season begins.
Rookie WRs
- DK Metcalf SEA -15 (Projected WR59, Drafted WR44)
- N’Keal Harry NE -24 (Projected WR61, Drafted WR37)
- Parris Campbell IND -26 (Projected WR76, Drafted WR50)
Surely, a case can be made for all three of these receivers. Each of them are entering the NFL on top-tier offenses with well established QBs at the helm. I’m not doubting their abilities, I’m doubting their fantasy production in year one. All three of these receivers are going to be on teams where there are also established WR1s (Tyler Lockett, Julian Edelman and TY Hilton, respectively) so they’re already going to be competing for targets. These three are being drafted in the same range as Sterling Shepard, Marvin Jones, Dede Westbrook (mentioned above) and Curtis Samuel. These are all guys who have been in the league for a year or two and have already established themselves in an offense as producers! It’s possible that Metcalf and Harry could be great players but as far as projections go, they’re going too early.
TE TJ Hockenson DET -10 (Projected TE22, Drafted TE12)
WHY? Rookie tight ends historically do not perform well and a general rule of thumb is to avoid them until they truly show production. The best finish in recent years from a rookie tight end is fifth from Evan Engram in 2017, beyond that every rookie tight end has been outside the top 10. Could TJ Hockenson finish 12th at the tight end position this year? He totally could, but it’s unlikely. The Lions aren’t necessarily a tight end-friendly team either. Tight ends for the Lions have finished third on the team in receiving yards only twice in the last six years, the best season stat line coming from Eric Ebron with 711 yards and ONE TD. It’s an ugly team for tight ends and I’m not expecting a lot out of Hockenson, at least not this upcoming season.
