David Johnson was drafted in the first round.. WHOA This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone considering how many successful seasons in a row DJ has had since entering the league.
WHOA is the same reaction I had when I was given the opportunity to join First Seed Sports. My name is Mike DelCorso. I am a former collegiate football player at Walsh University in Canton, Ohio and have been playing competitive fantasy football for over 5 years. Not only are Kyle Krajewski and Zach Cole dedicated fantasy football analysts and creators of First Seed Sports but they are my life long friends, former teammates and classmates of mine going back to middle school.
For six years and running we have been in two different fantasy leagues with two different sets of rules that has only raised its stakes…. and become more competitive. Back in High School, fantasy football was great. Everyone would ask their parents for $10 that the commissioner would collect and then immediately go and spend on Xbox 360 somehow. Terrible, right? Well, that commissioner was me. But times are different now. Now instead of $10 its $75. Do you know how many 4 for 4’s that is from Wendys? 18. That’s lunch and dinner for NINE days. Pretty big deal if you ask me.
Out of the four leagues I’m in this year, one that is run by me, one that is run by Zach, one that is run by Kyle, and the other that is run by my father. I have a total risk of $330 in leagues with a chance to win $1,900. There’s no hiding my motivation behind Fantasy football. I love to win. Money is just a bonus. So the big question is, how do I as a fantasy football player get the advantage over everyone else in my league? I’m here to say that First Seed Sports gives players a great advantage when it comes to dominating your fantasy football league. Some might state an argument that fantasy football isn’t hard to be good at. Those are the people that are in family leagues with half the league under 10 years old.
Now I’m not saying that fantasy football is all knowledge because it isn’t. It is VERY important to remember that this game we all love is 80% luck and 20% knowledge. So what I always like to remind people of is don’t get mad after a loss, GET TO THE DATA. Don’t be too happy after one win, GET TO THE DATA. And don’t get complacent because you’re a lock to make the playoffs, GET TO THE DATA.
What I mean by this is always look ahead to the next challenge ahead of you. This is where First Seed Sports increases your chances of winning. Weekly articles and Rankings are posted on our Website to give players the advantage they need. Now people will say that they have rankings on ESPN, CBS, Sleeper, etc. But what they don’t share is why there rankings are the way they are and what stats they are using to determine their rankings. At First Seed Sports my personal rankings of players consist of three stats that I value more than any others. It’s not receiving yards or rushing yards, and it’s not touchdowns. The three stats we value the most are: 1. Snap Share% 2. Targets or Rushing attempts 3. The opponent of the player.
David Johnson and Running Back Depreciation
If you were wondering why I used WHOA to describe David Johnson here’s why.
The year is 2015, a young 23 year old kid named David Johnson, drafted in the 3rd round out of Northern Iowa, gets the nod to be the back in Arizona. DJ posted stats of 125(Attempts) – 581(Yards) – 8(TDs). Not bad for a rook averaging 36.3 yards rushing per game and averaging 7.8 rushing attempts per game. On top of that he had 36(Receptions) – 457(Receiving Yards) – 4(Receiving TDs). Fast forward to 2019, DJ has stats of 82-302-2 rushing and 31-323-3 receiving through weeks (1-12) *BYE Week 12. DJ is on track to have finish 2019 with 128 rushing attempts and 470 yards in 2019. He would finish this season with 2 more rushing attempts then he had his rookie year and 100 less yards. WHOA. Running backs depreciate but never like this. These stats are worse than his own Rookie Season.
To put his workload into perspective I’ll compare my favorite NFL running back, Ezekiel Elliott 1.4 ADP(Average Draft Position), who is a top tier running back and right next to David Johnson’s 1.9 ADP for the 2019 season. Ezekiel Elliot in his rookie season in 2016 posted stats of 322-1631-15 while averaging 21 rushing attempts per game. Those are absolutely insane rookie numbers. He more than doubled David Johnson in every category except touchdowns. Since then Zeke’s numbers have lowered due to obvious workload management/health concerns but sadly so have DJ’s and its for none of those reasons. DJ was never over used in the beginning of his career which historically means he should be well rested and not burnt out. For a running back that has had multiple injuries and setbacks in 2019, is this the end of his run?
My point to make is this: Running backs historically have the shortest careers out of any other position. Why? Because they take more force when hit than any other player. Linemen have the most hits per game but not at the speed a running back takes. Running backs have a clearly faster depreciation than any other position. Zeke has played in 50 games in his career (14 missed due to being a healthy scratch and suspensions) while David Johnson has played in 58 (Missed 2017 season after week 1).
Running backs clearly have a faster depreciation than any other position, but in the History of the NFL I have never seen someone depreciate as fast as David Johnson. Every year he suffers multiple injuries. Some which he played through and others not. But in 2019, with a better quarterback than previous years who spreads the field and a young head coach, DJ can’t seem to put up great numbers.
In a recent interview (11/18/2019, Head Coach of the Arizona Cardinals Kliff Kingsbury) says, “David is a part of the offense and we have to find a way to make sure he’s playing at a high level and that we can get him the football.” KLIFF, I CANT TRUST YOU. I value snap share %, attempts/targets, and lastly the opponent of the player when evaluating players. David Johnson’s first week back from injury was week 11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. David Johnson had a snap share of 43%, second to Kenyan Drake 64% and posted stats of 5-2 rushing and 1-8 receiving. This week in a loss against the 49ers David Johnson was on the field for just nine offensive snaps and had ZERO touches in a close battle between a division rival that ended 36-26. Snap Share Percentage is way down. Attempts are way down. The opponent doesn’t matter when DJ isn’t seeing the field.
So I’ll leave it at this, DJ has had one of the fastest Running Back depreciating careers I’ve ever seen in a short five years. The signing of Kenyan Drake was an obvious factor in DJ’s decline. Whether or not you decide to drop him is upon yourself as I am not here to persuade you that David Johnson is a bad running back because he isn’t. Something is clearly wrong in Arizona and only time will tell what the reasons are for such a sudden rapid decline. I wont have DJ in my top 32 RBs anytime soon
I am extremely excited to be a part of First Seed Sports and pursue something that I put a lot of time into and have such a passion for. I hope you guys enjoyed this article and continue to GET TO THE DATA with First Seed Sports.
