Throughout the 2019 offseason there was a huge cloud of question marks around Todd Gurley and the threat of injury. This all stemmed from a postseason in which CJ Anderson dominated the LA backfield all the way up to the Super Bowl after a season in which Todd Gurley saw MVP potential. There were reports about arthritis and all sorts of other threats to his health.
Injury concerns dropped Gurley from what would’ve been a top 5 pick in fantasy drafts to the mid-second round. When you drafted Gurley last season you drafted with plenty of concern for his injury risk.
But in the end Gurley finished 2019 as the RB14 in PPR formats which is hard to complain about. He had six RB1 weeks, 12th most among RBs. Add both RB1 and RB2 weeks, Gurley was tied for fifth with 11 along with Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler and Chris Carson.
So that’s what he did in 2019, on a Rams offense that saw an enormous drop in production from the year before. But something is different about this season…
That’s right, the Falcons got new uniforms!
But also, Todd Gurley is now on the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta led the league in passing attempts last season which could open up some receiving work for Gurley, an area in which he’s not too shabby. With one of the best receivers on the roster in Julio Jones and a top tier WR2 in Calvin Ridley, things could open up for Gurley both on the ground and in the air.
LA had PFF’s 31st-ranked offensive line in 2019 and the entire team as a whole seemed pretty lackluster on offense, Gurley just seemed to be the biggest victim. He moves into an offensive line in Atlanta that’s ranked 24th by PFF. It’s not a huge improvement but it’s something.
Gurley had a 2019 season with a career low of 857 rushing yards and a weak 3.8 yards per attempt. It’s possible the elite seasons of Gurley’s career are behind him. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t produce for your fantasy team.
Let’s look at scoring. Gurley had 14 total touchdowns, tying him for fifth among RBs. As we get closer to the end zone, Gurley had the third-most red zone touches (54) and the fifth-most touches inside the ten-yard line (30).
LA seemed to trust Gurley near the goal line but the opposite could be said about Devonta Freeman in Atlanta. Freeman led the team in red zone rush attempts with 20, the next closest was Qadree Ollison with 12. As we move closer to the red zone, however, Freeman starts to fall behind. Freeman was third on the roster in rush attempts, behind Qadree Ollison and Ito Smith, both inside the ten (3) and five-yard lines (1).
The thing that comes to mind when looking at these stats and seeing how they’ll translate to Gurley in Atlanta are the run/pass splits inside the ten-yard line. Los Angeles had 89 plays run from inside the ten last season with a run/pass split of 37/52. (.41/.5) Compare that to Atlanta and they ran 57 total plays with a 21/34 run/pass split. (.36/.37)
Looking at those numbers, LA was more likely to run the ball inside the ten (41% of plays) compared to Atlanta (36% of plays). In 2018 it was an even wider difference as Atlanta stayed low on rush attempts inside the ten (37% of plays) compared to LA’s 50%.
Freeman finished 2019 as the RB20 in PPR which I can only see as Gurley’s floor in 2020. Working with a better offensive line, bigger threats on the receiving end to open up rushing opportunities and a solid amount of ten-zone opportunities I see a productive year incoming.
What do you think? Can you count on Gurley in 2020?
