Welcome to the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs! If you’re like me, you’re trying to scratch that fantasy football itch as much as you can before the NFL offseason. Lucky for us, Underdog’s Mitten tournament is exactly what we need. (Don’t forget to use our code FIRSTSEED on Underdog Fantasy for a 100% first deposit bonus).
It’s a playoff Best Ball tournament, where you draft a team and Underdog automatically plays your best lineup for the week. Except in the playoffs, it comes with a fun twist – if the team your player is on gets eliminated from the playoffs, they can no longer score points.
So not only do you have to weigh which players are best in drafts, but you also have to decide on who will be playing into the Super Bowl. It’s intense and it adds an extra element into best ball and fantasy football overall. I love it.
But how do you tackle these drafts? Let’s start with which teams have a better chance of playing in the Super Bowl. Using FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Super Bowl chances tool I put together a quick “How many games are these teams expected to play?” sum which looks like this:
| Tm | Expected Games |
| GB | 2.23 |
| KC | 2.08 |
| TB | 1.98 |
| TEN | 1.93 |
| BUF | 1.57 |
| LAR | 1.45 |
| CIN | 1.42 |
| SF | 1.34 |
So by these odds, the Green Bay Packers are expected to play in 2.23 games. This adds up to this weekend’s Divisional Round, next week’s Conference Championship, and a small percentage chance to play in the Super Bowl. This tells me that I should prioritize Packers and Chiefs players in drafts. It’s also helpful that players like Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are already top-tier players.
Let’s break it down even more into tiers.
Tier One: Super Bowl Favorites
- Green Bay Packers
- Kansas City Chiefs
These two have the highest chance to make an appearance in the Super Bowl, giving drafters a favorable eye towards them in Mitten drafts since they’ll most likely play the most games.
Tier Two: Conference Championship Opponents
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tennessee Titans
This next tier has the highest chance of winning in the Divisional Round but after that, it gets a little fuzzy. Either way, two potential games moving forward can help your teams advance each week.
Tier Three: Possible Super Bowl Run
- Buffalo Bills
- Los Angeles Rams
These two teams have tough opponents in the Divisional Round of the playoffs making it difficult to project these players farther into the Super Bowl. But both of them have the upside that if they do win this next week, they’ll be hot and make a potential Super Bowl appearance.
Tier Four: Divisional Round Studs
- Cincinnati Bengals
- San Francisco 49ers
The late-round guys in your drafts can bolster your teams to boost you to the next week, but the odds of them playing any further are lower than other teams.
What about players then? You know which teams have a better chance of playing more games, but how should you build your team? My favorite team builds in these playoff best balls are one of the following:
- 1 QB / 2 RB / 7 W/T
- 1 QB / 3 RB / 6 W/T
- 2 QB / 2 RB / 6 W/T
High priority in these drafts in my opinion are QBs Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. With a higher chance of playing in the Super Bowl, these two provide the highest positional advantage and allow you to stack up in other positions.
If you miss out on one of those two QBs, I’d focus on grabbing two late QBs (Joe Burrow/Matthew Stafford/Ryan Tannehill) and loading up on early-round talent. After you’ve decided between Rodgers/Mahomes or a late-round guy I’d focus on an RB. The fantasy holy grail.
Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, and Devin Singletary are my top-3 as they have higher expected games played moving forward. The WR depth is DEEP in my opinion, ranging from Davante Adams down to Brandon Aiyuk for the depth.
If you get early fantasy studs with low Super Bowl chances like Deebo Samuel and Ja’Marr Chase, don’t ignore Super Bowl favorites such as Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman to balance things out.
Most of all though, enjoy. Let’s win some money on Underdog Fantasy!
