Volume.
When I’m drafting players as my RB2 or even RB3, I target volume. I may have already drafted the flashy guys in Alvin Kamara or Austin Ekeler, now I need an RB who will get guaranteed volume. This year, David Montgomery is that guy for me and I believe he has immense upside for where’s being drafted.
As of writing this article, Montgomery has an ADP in the back end of the third round of PPR leagues and the 19th RB off the board. This means that if you are drafting in the back end of your 12-team drafts, you could start your first three rounds with a top-10 RB, a top-5 WR, and then top it off with David Montgomery in the third. I love the thought of that.
Why do I love that? I’ll tell you why – Montgomery gets the ball.
In the 2020 season, Montgomery finished the season with the fourth-most carries (247) and touches (301) among RBs. You may think that Montgomery is a ground-and-pound running back, but he was sixth among RBs in total targets.
Now let’s take a look at where those touches mean the most, closer to the goal line. In the red zone, Montgomery had the eighth-most carries (44) and the sixth-most targets among RBs (10). Even CLOSER in the ten zone, he was 7th in total touches (26).
You may think that the slight decline in rank of touches closer to the end zone may lead to a decline of touchdowns, but he finished the year with 10! That’s enough to tie himself for tenth among all RBs.
All those touches and head coach Matt Nagy hopes to get Montgomery 20 rushes per game in 2021. Just what I wanted to hear out of camp!
Now let’s talk about his fantasy output last season. For the entire fantasy season, weeks 1-16, Montgomery was the RB4. Up until Chicago’s bye week in week 12 he was averaging 12.15 points per game and was the RB21. I would say that RB21 position is his floor.
From weeks 12-16 in 2020 Montgomery was THE RB1 in fantasy football, averaging 25.2 points per game. Yes, this includes Kamara’s 57.5 point blowup in week 16.
Alright, so I’ve talked about his volume and I’ve touched on his 2020 fantasy scoring. What about his backfield competition in Tarik Cohen and Damien Williams?
Williams seems to have been brought in to be the direct backup to Montgomery, so I won’t consider him a threat.
Cohen, on the other hand, has historically been the receiving back in Chicago. That was the case, until 2020 when he only saw nine targets (compared to Montgomery’s 15) in the three games he played before tearing his ACL. I’m not worried about Cohen until I hear positive news from camp about his health.
So where am I drafting Montgomery? Anywhere in the third is where I am comfortable taking him, and he’ll be worth it. To me, he can be one of the most reliable options available as an RB2.
